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Monica Juma: “Middle powers have a crucial role in balancing global tensions”

Kenya’s National Security Advisor, Monica Juma, cautions against underestimating the persistent terror threat in East Africa and expresses hope for greater influence from middle powers in shaping global stability.

Körber-Stiftung: Ambassador Juma, the Assad regime in Syria has collapsed. Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz said this was good news. Do you agree?

The crisis situation in Syria accentuated vulnerability that went beyond the region. Hopefully, the fall of the Assad region offers an opportunity to turn the situation around. As a democracy, we value legitimate governance and view this as an opportunity for the Syrian people to shape their governance and transition towards acceptable self-rule. Given Kenya’s focus on counterterrorism, we are closely monitoring how the Global Coalition against ISIS responds.

You mentioned Kenya’s focus on counterterrorism. How do you assess the current threat of Al-Shabaab?

Due to its ties to global terrorist networks – including ISIS, which is moving into Somalia – Al-Shabaab remains a major threat to Kenya, the region and the world. Part of the reason why we have been advocating for a condition-based withdrawal of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia is to preserve the hard-earned security gains, which have been enabled in collaboration with regional and international partners, including the European Union. We are comforted by the fact that current discussions at the UN Security Council have aimed to ensure a smooth transition from ATMIS to a smaller mission.

Is Somalia ready to counter Al-Shabaab?

Somalia’s capacity has improved significantly but terror threats are not confined to one country. Global collaboration and continued regional support remain crucial.

Turning to the war in Ukraine, some leaders, including Donald Trump, have suggested the country cede territory to Russia. Given the war’s impact on Kenya’s agriculture, what is your take on this stance?

Kenya’s position on Ukraine has remained clear and consistent. Kenya firmly supports respect for borders and sovereignty, a core African principle, that is also a basis for the equality of nations in the United Nations Charter. We also have a strong tradition that privileges discussions to seek solutions when there is a situation of disagreement. When people talk and, ironically, even when people fight, they end up at the table, they are able to find solutions. Kenya advocates amicable, mutually acceptable resolution of disagreements.

Is there a time limit for how long Kenya is going to wait and see, considering the war’s global impact?

It’s not about waiting and seeing. The impact of the war on global supply chains underscores the duty of everyone to encourage a resolution that is acceptable and just. It is also the case that this is a war that can be resolved by Kenya alone. It requires global consensus. And while Ukraine is significant, Kenya also faces urgent regional issues, including in Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan and the Sahel – and we are engaged closely in most of these files. Addressing global conflicts requires a comprehensive approach considering local, regional and international implications. This raises questions about how we, as the international community, exercise uniformity and similar criteria as a responsible international community. A unified global response is essential to managing the world’s evolving risk portfolio. No crisis is too distant as they all have far-reaching consequences, beyond their immediate visinity.

Given Kenya’s extensive peace-making experience, what advice could you share with Europe, particularly Germany, when addressing the situation in Ukraine?

Every conflict is unique, but some fundamentals remain constant. Peace requires engagement with opponents to find a mutually acceptable middle ground. Military victories often come at a high cost. Thus, peaceful conflict resolution should always be encouraged. Additionally, middle powers have a crucial role in balancing global tensions, especially as East-West divisions deepen. When major powers are in deadlock, middle powers can build alliances based on shared norms and values, helping to bridge divides and to restore functionality in key international mechanisms like the UN Security Council.

Germany and Kenya advocate African seats in the UN Security Council. Do you think this is realistic?

With over 60 per cent of the council’s agenda focused on Africa, it is clearly inconsistent to advocate global representation while ignoring Africa’s role. The problem is not stalemate; it is a lack of political will and refusal to adapt to today’s realities, which creates dysfunction in multilateral systems. As President William Ruto has emphasized, the world needs to demand a new, responsive global architecture. Reform must extend beyond the UN Security Council to other multilateral institutions, including financial bodies. If these institutions fail to adapt, alternative alliances will naturally emerge to address pressing global issues.

After COP29, a significant gap in funding to combat and adapt to climate change remains. How should African countries navigate this while maintaining regional security?

Countries facing vulnerabilities will not remain passive, they will seek alternatives to address their real needs, which makes existing multilateral institutions increasingly irrelevant and ineffective. Historically, multilateralism has been dominated by major powers. This dynamic is likely to shift with middle powers and as formerly less influential nations becoming more relevant. Change seems inevitable but its nature remains uncertain.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, and Economic Minister Robert Habeck all visited Kenya this year. Germany’s relation with Kenya seems to be going well…

We have a strong, long-standing relationship with Germany, which was the first country to recognize Kenya’s independence. High-level visits and regular contact between our officials reflect this closeness. We have signed a labour-migration agreement and are seeing increased investment and more concrete areas of engagement. Business cooperation also shows a positive trajectory. I hope our partnership continues to strengthen.

Thank you for your time, Ambassador Juma.

This interview was conducted in December 2024.

The Berlin Pulse – Express Edition

In cooperation with Table.Media​​​​​​​, The Berlin Pulse Express Edition combines the foreign policy attitudes of Germans with expectations of Germany from abroad.