The Berlin Pulse 2024/25

After the US elections and the coalition break up 73 per cent of Germans think that Germany should invest more in European security. Nevertheless, 58 per cent are against Germany taking a leading role in the West if the US withdraws internationally.

As early as September, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius’s proposal to increase defense spending to 3 to 3.5 percent of the gross domestic product received the approval of 50 percent of those surveyed. Fifteen percent even consider this figure to be too low. At the same time, the majority of Germans (65 percent) oppose a military leadership role for Germany in Europe. In 2023, this figure was still at 71 percent. When it comes to greater involvement in international crises, Germans remain divided: 46 percent expressed support in September. This is the highest figure since the survey began in 2017. At the same time, 44 percent continue to oppose a stronger international engagement.

From the perspective of 79 percent of Germans, Donald Trump’s upcoming presidency will negatively affect relations between Germany and the United States. In September, 74 percent of Germans and 84 percent of respondents surveyed in the US had still rated these relations as good or very good. Now, the focus is shifting toward diversification: 88 percent of Germans would like relationships with European partners to take priority, and 71 percent wish to expand relations with countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Nonetheless, even after the US election, 46 percent of Germans still see the United States as the most important partner— compared to 47 percent before the presidential election. When asked about the greatest foreign policy competence following the coalition breakdown, 28 percent of respondents named Friedrich Merz, giving him the highest approval rating.

When asked about the three greatest foreign policy challenges for Germany, 45 percent of responses in September mentioned the war in Ukraine—the highest figure since the Russian invasion in 2022. 31 percent identified migration as a key issue, and 17 percent cited the war in the Middle East.

Two and a half years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a majority of 57 percent of Germans still support military aid for Ukraine. However, this share has decreased compared to the previous year (66 percent). Support is particularly low in East Germany, where only 40 percent favor continued military support. Forty-seven percent of respondents believe that Ukraine should defend itself against the Russian invasion until all territories occupied by Russia are reclaimed. In contrast, 43 percent think Ukraine should cede parts of its territory to Russia in an effort to bring about an end to the war. Seventy percent of respondents view the United States as a partner in dealing with the war.

A majority of Germans (82 percent) see Russia as a military threat to Germany, an increase of 6 percentage points compared to the previous year. Half of Germans (52 percent) believe that the stationing of American intermediate-range missiles in Germany increases the risk of war with Russia. Iran is perceived as a military threat by 60 percent of respondents, and China by 57 percent.

A clear majority (79 percent) oppose military support for Israel in its war against Hamas. At the same time, 64 percent believe that Germany should act as a mediator between Israel and Hamas. Eighty-seven percent of respondents support German humanitarian aid for people in the Gaza Strip. Fifty-four percent of respondents see the United States as a partner for Germany in Israel’s war with Hamas.

The growing influence of China is viewed negatively by 61 percent of respondents. More than half of Germans (56 percent) also see China as a significant threat to the domestic economy, with an additional 34 percent perceiving at least a minor threat. Six in ten Germans (60 percent) support greater economic independence from China, even if it results in economic losses and job cuts in Germany.

A large majority (91 percent) call for stricter repatriation measures for rejected asylum seekers, as well as tighter border controls at the EU’s external borders (85 percent). At the same time, 85 percent of respondents support increased assistance for recognized asylum seekers in their integration.