Emerging Middle Powers Report 2025

Different foreign policy priorities

For experts from Brazil, climate continues to be the most important foreign policy priority, while South African and Indian experts prioritise other issues. India continues to focus on China and regional security. For experts in South Africa, which currently holds the G20 presidency, relations with the Global South are becoming increasingly important. Ukraine and the Middle East are only one of the top 3 priorities for experts from Germany.

Trade as a unifying element and opportunity for Europe

International trade is one of the three most important foreign policy priorities in India, Brazil and South Africa, as well as for German respondents. With the exception of India, all respondents agree that their country will suffer from a trade war between the US and China. By the end of 2024, the trade practices of both the United States and China will be seen as unfair by a majority of respondents in all four countries. The European Unions is also criticised: 80 per cent of respondents in Brazil, 60 per cent in South Africa and 56 per cent in India consider its trade practices to be unfair. A fair conclusion of currently negotiated free trade agreements (FTAs) could improve the EU’s image.

International reform pessimism

In all four countries, respondents have little hope for change when asked about their prospects for international reform. Regardless of whether the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the United Nations or the World Trade Organisation are willing to reform, six out of ten respondents in all four countries consider it ‘unlikely’ that there will be significant reforms in the next five years to make them fairer and more equitable.

Respondents are almost as pessimistic when it comes to relations between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries, with most respondents expecting these to deteriorate over the next five years.

Less China scepticism

China’s global influence is perceived more positively than in the previous year, including in Germany. This is also reflected in the question about China’s role in peace between Ukraine and Russia. Worldwide, China is seen as one of the most active players for peace, usually in second or third place – behind its own country and Turkey, but ahead of Europe, the USA and Ukraine itself. In India, Russia is rated as more active than Ukraine, while in Brazil and South Africa the ratings are very close. In Germany, on the other hand, the picture differs significantly: Turkey is seen as an important player here, while Ukraine only ranks fourth.

Pivot to non-alignment?

While 8 out of 10 respondents in Brazil and South Africa still prefer the option of ‘non-alignment’/neutrality to siding with the United States or China, it is increasingly becoming an alternative for 52 per cent of Indian respondents (2023: 38 per cent). In Germany, too, ‘neutrality/non-alignment’ is increasingly becoming an option (29 per cent compared to 19 per cent in 2023).